Summer of Drought
Jacob’s Well in Wimberley, Texas, is currently at zero spring flow, July 23, 2023.
“Texas is the land of perennial drought, broken by the occasional devastating flood.”
—Unnamed National Weather Service Meteorologist
Tom Jones
Now in August of 2023, Western Hays County and the Texas Hill Country have not received adequate rain to keep our rivers and streams flowing or to recharge our aquifers. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauges in the Pedernales and Blanco Rivers are recording sustained record low flows.
The USGS reports similar low-flow conditions in the South Llano, the Frio, the Sabinal, and the Medina Rivers. Hays Trinity Groundwater Conservation District
On July 23, 2023, it’s easy to see the Cypress Creek low water table in this Jacob’s Well photo. It’s several feet below the creek bed. I cannot recall ever seeing the water level so low.
According to the American Meteorological Society, drought is a period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently long enough to cause a serious hydrological imbalance. That is a long definition for uncomfortably hot weather. Unlike hurricanes and tornadoes, drought is generally a slow-moving phenomenon. Texas is no stranger to drought. The seven-year drought of record in the 1950s was a turning point in Texas history that led to the formation of the Texas Water Development Board. Since then, Texas has faced numerous droughts, including the second worst and second longest statewide drought. It began in August 2010 and lasted through October 2014. I first heard about this drought when I moved to Wimberley in August 2013. When I arrived, my neighbors questioned why I would want to move to Wimberley in the middle of a major drought.
The chart uses five categories showing areas that may be going into or are coming out of drought:
D4 exceptional - D3 extreme - D2 severe - D1 moderate - D0 abnormally dry
Texas Water Development Board
Widespread drought returned to Hays County in 2022, rivaling 2011 conditions. It is a grim reminder, illustrating drought's recurring threat to cause significant harm to the state's economy. It also endangers the health and safety of people. The typical summer weather patterns in Central Texas include alternating wet and dry cycles that can last for months. Every Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Drought Mitigation Center produce a new map based on their assessments of the best available data and input from local observers. As happened last year at this time, dry weather and drought are expected to expand. Let’s look at the data.
The Hays County drought conditions are reported by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and can be viewed by clicking this link: The current conditions in Hays County are summarized below:
This drought stage mandates a 40% curtailment of aquifer pumping within the Hays-Trinity Groundwater Conservation District. Within the Jacob’s Well Management Zone, a 30% curtailment in pumping has been implemented. The map below illustrates the drought conditions across the Texas Hill Country as of July, 2023. The Wimberley area is in the extreme (red) drought category.
The July 2023 U.S. Drought Monitor map shows Central Texas and the location and the current drought intensity using the five classifications indicated above. Wimberley is classified as D3 - Extreme Drought.
The impact of the ongoing drought can also be seen on the Blanco River. The change in stream flow over 3 months is illustrated in the two photos below. During the dry summer conditions, the river flow is primarily from Cypress Creek, which gets most of its water from the springs at Blue Hole Regional Park in Wimberley.
Blanco River upstream from the RR12 bridge at Wimberley, May 2023
Only 3 months later, this is the Blanco River upstream from the RR12 bridge at Wimberley, July 2023.
The Forecast
Looking back to the epic drought in 2012-2013, we know it was ended by 12 inches of rainfall overnight, October 30-31. The Halloween Flood caused Onion Creek to rise 11 feet in fifteen minutes, cresting at a record 41 feet. We can’t predict how this year’s drought will end. But I think this quote says it best:
“There is no way that we can predict the weather six months ahead beyond giving the seasonal average.” —Stephen Hawking